Dota 2 Betting Predictions for StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5

StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a Dota Pro Circuit Minor, having a prize pool of $300,000 and awarding a total of 300 qualification points for The International 2018. The event is organized by StarLadder in association with ImbaTV, has eight participating teams and is scheduled to take place in Kiev (Ukraine, Eastern Europe) between April 12th and April 15th.

Teams, Tournament Format and Prize Distribution
StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 features eight teams from a total of six regions:

Europe: Team Kinguin.
CIS: FlyToMoon, Natus Vincere, Vega Squadron.
South America: SG e-sports.
North America: OpTic Gaming.
China: VGJ.Thunder.
Southeast Asia: Fnatic.
For the Group Stage, the teams will be split into two groups of four.
Group A

OpTic Gaming
VGJ.Thunder
FlyToMoon
Team Kinguin
Group B

Fnatic
Vega Squadron
Natus Vincere
SG e-sports
Both groups will be played in a double-elimination bracket format. The second and first placed teams from each group advance to the Playoffs. Here, the rank 1 from Group A plays against rank 2 from Group B and vice versa. Until the Grand Final (Bo5), every match is a Bo3 series.

Because it belongs to the Dota Pro Circuit, StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 offers 300 qualification points in addition to its prize pool. The money and the points will be distributed among the 8 teams in the following way:

1st place: $135,000; 150 points
2nd place: $60,000; 90 points
3rd – 4th place: $30,000; 30 points
5th – 6th place: $15,000; 0 points
7th – 8th place: $7,500; 0 points
Betting Predictions
VGJ.Thunder vs. FlyToMoon
VGJ.Thunder
VGJ.Thunder is sitting at number 8 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1665 points. This is a very strong Chinese competitor and given that most of its usual opponents are missing from this event, it is likely that it will claim the title or at least qualify for the Grand Final. Overall, VGJ.Thunder has obtained two 2nd place finishes this season at Dota Pro Circuit LAN events. One of these tournaments was The Bucharest Major.

FlyToMoon
This team has been around for only two months and does not have a single notable result apart from some tournament qualifications. Even at this level of competition, which is considerably lower compared to that of Major tournaments, FlyToMoon has little to no chance of getting anything other than a 7th-8th place finish.

Prediction
This is a complete mismatch and will definitely end with a quick 2 – 0 victory in favor of VGJ.Thunder. Given that it’s a Bo3, there’s almost nothing that FlyToMoon can do to stop the Chinese juggernaut.
Bovada puts the odds for this match at -310 / +200 in favor of VGJ.Thunder, giving you spectacular returns for such a low-risk bet.

OpTic Gaming vs. Kinguin
OpTic Gaming
OpTic Gaming is the strongest team in North America, with the exception of Evil Geniuses. With more than 6 months of local and international experience, a great roster full of highly skilled individuals and a formidable captain (Peter “ppd” Dager, TI 5 champion with EG), OpTic Gaming is one of the main contenders at this event and should easily get a top 3 finish. I personally think they’re very likely to reach the Grand Final, but it remains to be seen.

Team Kinguin
Team Kinguin is a mediocre European squad with a few participations at Dota Pro Circuit events but no achievements so far. Given that StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a Minor event which for the most part, didn’t attract the interest of top teams, Team Kinguin might achieve a 5th-6th place result. But I don’t think they can climb higher than that.

Prediction
This might be a disputed match, but OpTic Gaming will almost certainly still be victorious in the end. Either a 2 – 0 or a 2 – 1 result in their favor is an extremely likely outcome for this encounter.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -325 / +210 in favor of OpTic Gaming.

Vega Squadron vs. SG e-sports
Vega Squadron
Vega Squadron is a fairly strong team in the CIS region and in recent weeks has managed to beat tough opponents such as Team Empire, Natus Vincere and Team Spirit in the CIS qualifiers for various tournaments. The players on its roster aren’t very well known, but they’re all seasoned professionals and play reasonably well as a unit.

Vega Squadron has little chance of winning against top contenders like OpTic Gaming, Fnatic, and VGJ.Thunder, but has at least a 50% chance to emerge victorious against any other team. The most likely result for them at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 is a 5th-6th place finish.

SG e-sports
No doubt, SG e-sports is one of the top South American teams. However, South America is by far the weakest region in Dota 2 of the 6 that are officially recognized, and the only one that doesn’t have a representative among the top 10 teams inside the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table. Like most of the other participants at this tournament, SG e-sports hasn’t had any notable results this season. And since the skill difference between South America and the other regions is so big, it’s likely that they will get either a 5th-6th or 7th-8th place finish at this event.

Prediction
Vega Squadron is slightly favored to win this match, but only by a little. So you should be cautious here and not take a huge risk.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -175 / +120 in favor of Vega Squadron.

Fnatic vs. Natus Vincere
Fnatic
Fnatic desperately needs a title or at least a 2nd place finish at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 if it wants to get back into top 8 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings table and obtain a direct invite for The International 2018. Right now, it’s sitting at number 11 with 884 points, so this type of competition is a perfect opportunity for a great result because it lacks top opposition for the most part. In terms of strength, Fnatic is the second-best team at this event and will likely reach the Grand Final if it can defeat either OpTic Gaming or VGJ.Thunder in the Semifinals (depending on who it will face at that point).

One thing to take note of is that Fnatic will be playing with their coach Adam at this tournament and not with “pieliedie”. This decision might have a significant impact on their game.

Natus Vincere
Following the departure of RodjER and SoNNeikO, Natus Vincere went on a downward spiral and is now an underdog in most of the tournaments participates in. At the moment, this famous CIS team is sitting at number 10 in the Dota Pro Circuit rankings, having 1199 points. Just like Fnatic, Natus Vincere needs an excellent result at StarLadder ImbaTV Invitational Season 5 if it wants to have a chance of getting a top 8 finish for the season and get a direct invite to The International 2018. Based on its recent performance, Na’Vi has little chance of getting more than a 3rd-4th place finishes at this event.

Prediction
Fnatic will be seeking revenge for its previous defeat against Na’Vi and will almost certainly going to get it. However, keep in mind that Fnatic will be playing with a substitute and this may affect their performance in a negative way.

Bovada puts the odds for this match at -250 / +170 in favor of Fnatic.

7 Things You Never Knew About Casinos

Americans love gambling. We spend billions of dollars every year at land-based casinos, from the high desert of Las Vegas to the riverboat casinos of the Mississippi Delta. Forty US states are home to at least one casino. Even conservative Texas has a casino within its borders.

The casino business has been booming for nearly 100 years. From its early days as a frontier distraction to the multi-billion dollar mega-businesses of today, casino gambling has enthralled Americans as long as it’s been available. But I bet you didn’t know all these cool facts about the casino business.

Read on for a fascinating look at how the betting industry really works.

1. Casinos lose money all the time
Sure, most players end up losing money. But you have to figure high cost of the property, staff, and complimentary items keep casinos from beating everyone. Of course those patrons who play very little or are accompanying real players make up a large portion of this group, but there are many players that are actually able to win over a long period of time. This group includes blackjack card counters, but the largest percentage is comprised of players who gamble just enough to qualify for freebies and complimentary giveaways like free rooms and meals.

2. They love winners
You might assume that the casino isn’t happy when someone cashes in a big jackpot. But that’s far from the truth. Think about it – do you want to play at a casino that never pays out big winnings or a casino that regularly advertises big prizes? Big wins are good for business, so don’t be surprised to see a bunch of smiles and glad-handing when the supervisor hands you a big progressive prize.

3. Card-counters are welcome … in Atlantic City
If you’re an advantage gambler of any type, you run the risk of getting kicked out of a casino in Las Vegas or most other parts of the country. Most casinos reserve the right to kick out anyone they suspect is counting cards or using other advantage techniques. But if you’re a card-counter and you want to use your skill freely, there is one place you’re welcome. Atlantic City is explicitly open to blackjack card-counters and other advantage bettors. How do they do it? They’ve adapted. For example, the rules for blackjack are altered to account for the impact of card counting tactics.

4. Think you’ve been ripped off? There’s an agency for that
Every legal casino in America is run by a regulatory agency. If you think you’ve been cheated, you can contact Gaming Control (or whatever agency runs the show where you were playing) and lodge a formal complaint. Just don’t use this service to whine about cold food or a broken elevator. Those particular complaints should be made to the casino’s manager, not to a government body meant to curtail casino cheating.

5. If you win big, you can ask for a check instead of cash or chips
This one surprised me – I’ve never seen it done before, and I’ve been in casinos plenty of times. Apparently, it’s perfectly acceptable to ask for a check if you have a decent-sized win. Basically, any hand-pay you get in Vegas or AC can be turned into a check, so long as you ask nicely and do it before you get your cash or chip pay-out. You can even get a combination pay-out, part in a check, part in cash, and part in chips. Remember – your casino is basically a service economy with you as its target. If you play a lot and talk sweetly to the employees, you can get pretty much whatever you want, within reason.

6. You need a current and valid photo ID on you pretty much at all times
Though some US casinos allow players in at age 18 (particularly in Alaska), the gambling age in pretty much every other US state is 21. To enforce that, the casino demands that all players have a valid photo ID on them at all time while on the floor. Don’t even try the old “Oops, I left my ID up in my room” trick. The casino can (and will) ask you to leave if you don’t have your ID on you.

7. Casinos have strict etiquette rules – including language restrictions
Contrary to the stereotype of the casino as a den of iniquity, gambling halls actually have pretty lengthy lists of rules and proper etiquette that you must follow. The quickest way to get a nasty look from your dealer or even a warning from the pit is to open your mouth and let one of those famous “four-letter words” slip out. My advice – act like you’re playing craps with your grandmother. You’ll be better off, and the other bettors around you will appreciate your kindness.

How to Make a Million Dollars Playing Video Poker

I’ll level with you – if I knew some secret method for making a million dollars on video poker, I wouldn’t be blogging right now. I’d be in the Alaskan wilderness catching salmon or just sitting on my back porch cracking open a beer.

So how can you become a video poker millionaire? The truth is, there is no one secret method that will turn you into a video poker millionaire. I’m suspicious of “get-rich quick” ideas of any variety. As a general rule, the less work something requires, the less effective it is.

I can think of a few outside-the-box ways to put two commas in your bank account playing video poker:

You could win a million dollars playing progressive video poker. Of course, you’d have to win an unlikely number of progressive jackpots to total $1,000,000 – video poker progressive jackpots are considerably smaller than slot machines, resetting to between $500 and $1,500, and rarely paying off more than two or three times the reset amount. Don’t forget how rare progressive video poker games are – you won’t find a single progressive video poker game on the Vegas Strip or anywhere in Atlantic City.
You could sit around putting money in the machine until you hit an uncanny streak of luck. Let’s say you’re betting max, $5 per credit and $25 credits per hand. If you could string together enough $30 payouts in a row, you’d eventually win a million bucks. It would take 200,000 straight 6-credit wins (to offset the coast of each round’s maximum bet), and would certainly raise some eyebrows at the IRS, but I suppose it’s technically (given enough decimal places) “possible.”
You could have a really gnarly slip-and-fall accident while playing a video poker machine. If it’s found that the casino was negligent in inspecting and maintaining their property, you’ll be entitled to compensation, damages, and (in rare cases) a punitive award designed to teach the casino a lesson they won’t easily forget. It’s within the realm of possibility that you could win a million-dollar settlement. Of course, this is abuse of the system, and it would make you a horrible human being. It may backfire too – the court may throw the case out, especially if there is no evidence of negligence.
Those three ideas are pretty far outside the realm of possibility. Instead of slipping in a spilled drink, waiting for a mathematical miracle, or losing your shirt chasing progressives, I suggest a more level-headed approach.

The Three Basic Tenets of the Video Poker Millionaire
The three tenets listed below aren’t exactly secret. They’re freely-available all over the Internet. I can vouch for this fact, as I’ve written dozens of blog posts on these topics over the years.

Once you’ve learned how to play video poker, all you need to do to (one day) make a million bucks playing the game is follow these three simple rules:

Learn Basic Strategy
If you want to have fun in Vegas and don’t mind eventually giving your entire $100 bankroll to the casino, you don’t need to worry about strategy.

If your plan is to earn a million dollars from video poker, you have to become a graduate student of gambling. It helps if you have a good library near your home, since some of the books you’ll want to read aren’t all that available online. In fact, if you live near a state university with a decent research library, you’re a step ahead.

While you’re at it, subscribe to some gaming magazines. If you’re mostly going to gamble in Vegas, subscribe to some Vegas content, too. Join a couple of forums. Depending on where you live, you may be able to find seminars in your area teaching legitimate video poker and other game strategies. By the way, this isn’t something you can do once or twice a year for a couple of years and be done with it. With new games come new strategies, and with new casinos come new opportunities for advantage gambling. You’ll really need to become a lifelong student of gambling and game strategy.

Choose Player-Friendly Games
Unfortunately, the heyday of +EV video poker is long gone. You can still find a few high-paying titles that make a special trip to a specific casino or website worth your time. Specifically, there’s enough 10/7 Double Bonus and full-pay Deuces Wild on casino floors in the gambling Meccas of America to keep things interesting. If you are absolutely determined to earn a million bucks from video poker, you should probably stick to these titles only, since any other titles are going to retain too much of your money over time.

If you don’t mind gambling a little (or waiting a few extra years to earn your million), you can play some of the 99%+ titles that casinos still host. These are generally available whether you’re online, in Vegas, in Atlantic City, or elsewhere in the USA. The so-called Not So Ugly Deuces games (which we call 25/16/10) is popular and gives the casino a less than a quarter-percent edge, as do most casino’s versions 9/6 Jacks or Better, and the venerable 8/5 Bonus Poker with a return of around 99.1%.

Casinos love to put sub-99% video poker games immediately next to identical games set high. This is especially true in the few casinos where you still find full-pay titles. This means you absolutely have to inspect every pay table before you play.

Manage Your Money (and Earn Comps)
The kind of dedication it takes to become a gambling millionaire means that it shouldn’t be hard for you to rigorously control how much you spend on video poker. But since you should always bet maximum, your wager size and scope are pretty limited. Instead of worrying about bet sizing, focus on earning those crucial additional benefits casinos give their loyal customers. That means joining the players club, exchanging club points for cash, scoring multiple-points promos, entering raffles and drawings, playing in video poker tournaments, remembering to mail in those bounce-back rewards clipping coupons, and doing all those annoying things that tend to make a casino trip less fun.

In exchange for a little bit of what always feels like wasted time, you’re putting a big dent in the casino’s edge. If you’re already playing +EV games, using comps basically extends your tiny edge. Not a statistically-significant amount at first, but over time, it makes a big difference.

Conclusion
I’m at the end of the post, and I have this nagging question at the back of my mind. Is this even possible?

I did some math – always a dangerous proposition – and came up with some interesting figures about this hands-off method of becoming a millionaire on Jacks or Better. To earn $1,000,000 playing 10/7 Double Bonus (which gives you about a 0.17% return per hour, when playing with perfect strategy), you’d have to play for 294,117 hours. That’s assuming you can play 80 hands an hour perfectly, making no strategic mistakes at all. That works out to about 100 years of playing the same game for eight hours a day.

Having said that, you could always form a partnership with other players working towards a common goal – but then, you’re not really a millionaire, are you?

All told, I think it’s an interesting question to answer and a good teachable moment. I am sure that someone out there has earned a million bucks (or even more) playing video poker, but they’re probably some sort of outlier, with an uncanny ability to play long-term and the best-odds games making very few mistakes. It’s also possible that a person would earn a million bucks worth of comps given enough time and enough loyalty at the right casino.